Article Contributed by Scott Willen
As we’ve reached the half-way point of the 2011 season, it seemed like a good time for a Harbin Ratings refresher. In Ohio only eight teams from each of four geographical regions per Division make the post-season. The eight teams are determined by OHSAA computer rankings, more commonly known as the Harbin Ratings. Region’s 5-8 are the four geographical regions for Division II. Kings is in Region 8. If you’d like a quick tutorial, read on.
The Harbin Ratings are not really that difficult to understand once you see how it works mathematically. The first concept to grasp is there are actually two sets of numbers, Level 1 points and Level 2 points, that determine the final rating:
1. Level 1 – these points give numerical weight to wins by your team. With each victory, a team earns points based on the size of the school they beat. Currently the points are awarded as follows:
Division I 6.0 points
Division II 5.5 points
Division III 5.0 points
Division IV 4.5 points
Division V 4.0 points
Division VI 3.5 points
For example, if Kings, a D-II school, beats Mason (D-I), Kings receives 6.0 points while Mason receives 0.0 for a loss. If Kings were to beat Wyoming (D-III), Kings would receive only 5.0 points. It makes sense then to have a challenging schedule. Getting a lot of wins over smaller schools may make your record look good, but in the long run may not help you accumulate enough points to make the play-offs.
2. Level 2 – these points are a numerical representation of the strength of your schedule. This is why we become “the biggest fans” of schools we have beaten. The more points (think victories) they accumulate over the course of the season, the higher our Level 2 points. Again, this supports playing a strong schedule. This doesn’t necessarily mean always playing larger schools but it does highlight playing and beating quality opponents. For example, assuming they play schools their own size, it would be better to beat an 8-2 D-III school than a 4-6 D-I opponent. Simply put, playing a weak schedule won’t likely provide as many Level 2 points.
If Kings loses to an opponent, we are no longer eligible to receive Level 2 points from them. So, if we lose the game, we receive zero Level 1 and zero Level 2 points.
Now that we have gathered our overall points it’s time to put them together and come up with the Harbin Rating. First, the total Level 1 points are divided by the number of weeks played so far in the season to calculate our Level 1 rating. Then, the total Level 2 points accumulated are divided by 100 (10 weeks multiplied by 10 opponents) and multiplied by 10 (moves the decimal point higher so that the averages are comparable to those in past years according to OHSAA), giving us our Level 2 rating. These two numbers are then added together for your team’s Harbin Rating.
There are other events that can have an impact on the calculations such as opponents having only nine games on their schedule (which impacts the Level 2 formula), ties, and playing out of state teams, but these don’t effect Kings directly this year so I won’t add to the confusion. Just be aware there are other nuances to the ratings beyond what’s described here. Also notice there are no “style points” associated with Harbin Ratings. A 7-6 win in overtime is as good as a 49-0 blowout.
Sounds simple enough, but if you’re like me, pictures and examples work best. To illustrate the calculations let’s use results from the 2010 season for the first six games of the Knights schedule to see how the Harbin Ratings are calculated. I’ve chosen 2010 to include the impact of a loss on the calculation.
Hopefully that helped somewhat.
For Week 5 of the 2011 season, Kings should have the #2 rating for Region 8. This is great news and certainly reflects the tremendous start the Knights have put together. Due to the schedule however, Knights fans shouldn’t expect to climb higher in Week 6. Let’s continue our example with a little “what if” scenario. After Week 5 the estimates for the top four teams in Region 8 should look like:
Trotwood-Madison 12.650
Kings 12.600
Butler Vandalia 10.800
Wapakoneta 10.000
Lets assume all four teams get wins in Week 6 (just for illustration purposes). We need to make assumptions for all opponents on each of the five teams schedules as well. Who will win between Lebanon and Xenia? Between Elida and Kenton? That done, let’s move on. Kings will play Little Miami. A win over the Panthers will yield 5.5 Level 1 Points and only 5.0 Level 2 points. A Trotwood victory over Piqua will yield 5.5 Level 1 points and 17.5 Level 2 points. Vandalia would pick-up 6.0 Level 1 points and 22.5 Level 2 points with a win over D-I Troy. Wapakoneta plays D-IV Ottawa-Glandorf and would earn 4.5 Level 1 points and 20 Level 2 points.
Strength of schedule obviously factors prominently for Week 6 results. Given the above assumptions the ratings would look like:
Trotwood-Madison 16.633
Butler Vandalia 14.817
Kings 14.233
Wapakoneta 13.367
Hopefully the above helps explain some of the mystery of Harbin Ratings and why they move around from week to week, even when we win, and also help explain why there are times when you look at records, a team that goes 8-2 doesn’t make it into the play-offs and a 6-4 team does.
In the end, we shouldn’t get too caught-up in the weekly ratings. As parents and fans, we need to simply support our team. The coaches and players must prepare and play one week at a time. Take care of business one game at a time. That’s all they can control. The rest, as you now know, is just OHSAA math!
GO KNIGHTS!
